Have a GREAT Wednesday readers! I continue to search for articles that may shed some light on this continuing saga of corn vs food. It is a very complicated issue, compounded this year largely due to the HUGE drought in the corn producing States, the worst drought in nearly 50 years. The crop damage is already estimated at 35% or so and likely go higher. Plus, the EPA ethanol mandate that 12+ billion gallons of ethanol to be produced soaks up nearly 40%+ of the corn grown. SO, what's left for corn for food products when the drought has taken much. That's what has driven the corn prices from $6.25/bushel to now $8.30/bushel.
Here's yet another article which debates that corn prices CAN be brought down if the EPA's mandate is reduced significantly. In an election year, I personally believe there is a proverbial "snowball's chance in hell" that this will happen. SO, those "pricey" steaks will likely become unaffordable for many people and they will be forced to switched to tortillas.......but, oops, I forgot that those are made from corn also!
"Pete"
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Study: U.S. could put a big dent in food prices by relaxing
ethanol rules
The worst U.S. drought in half a century has hampered the country’s
corn production and caused plenty of worry about the rising cost of food
worldwide. But the spike also raises a policy question. Should the United States now suspend its rules that
divert a hefty portion of the U.S. corn crop—40 percent, by some counts—into
ethanol fuel for cars and trucks?
One top U.N. food official, José
Graziano da Silva, has already called for an
“immediate, temporary suspension” of the U.S. ethanol mandate in order to ease
the pressure on world food prices. But how much would this actually help?
Here’s one possible answer. A new paper (pdf)
out from three agricultural economists at Purdue University finds that even a
partial relaxation of the mandate could reduce corn prices by up to 20 percent
next year. (It’s probably too late to seriously affect prices this year.) But,
as always, there are complications involved that make these estimates
uncertain.
Currently, the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard requires
refiners to blend a certain amount of ethanol in with their gasoline. In 2013,
this will require about 13.8 billion gallons of ethanol. Since corn ethanol is
the most viable form of ethanol in the United States at the moment, this
creates a hefty—and fairly inflexible—market for corn. And that causes corn
prices to rise higher than they otherwise would.
What would happen if the EPA relaxed this mandate? As the Purdue
authors note, a lot depends on how quickly refiners and blenders could switch
away from ethanol. That’s not as technically easy as it sounds—these refiners
have already made preparations for blending ethanol. What’s more, under the EPA
program, the producers of ethanol can carry over credits from year to
year, giving them some flexibility to deal with shortages. That complicates
matters further.
So the Purdue authors modeled a couple of different situations to
determine how the price of corn might be affected in 2013. Roger Pielke Jr. has created a very handy graph that
shows different options under a “strong drought” scenario:
Let’s break this chart down: In the first option, the EPA doesn’t
alter its ethanol program at all. Corn prices remain elevated next year
— staying around $8.57 per bushel. Under the second option, the EPA
doesn’t alter its program at all, but ethanol producers use as many of their
existing credits (RINS) as possible to deal with the shortage. Corn prices drop
about 7 percent. In the third case, the EPA allows a little more flexibility in
its rules, say, by partially relaxing the mandate or by allowing U.S. refiners
to use imported sugarcane ethanol. Prices drop by about 13 percent.
Under the fourth option there, the EPA allows a fairly big
relaxation of the ethanol rule next year. (A waiver this year is unlikely.)
Refiners are required to use 25 percent less ethanol. And ethanol producers can
carry over their credits from previous years. In that case, corn prices could
drop more than 20 percent, to $6.56 per bushel. That’s about where corn prices
would have been if we only had a “weak drought” this year. In other words, by
relaxing the ethanol rule, the EPA could essentially turn a “strong drought”
into a “weak drought” as far as prices are concerned.
Still, the Purdue authors note that there’s no simple solution
here. The drought has already hurt the corn crop this year. That corn isn’t
coming back. At best, by relaxing the ethanol rule, the EPA could redistribute
the pain a bit:
In considering a waiver, EPA cannot change the loss, but can
only redistribute it among the affected parties—ethanol producers,
livestock producers, corn growers, and ultimately domestic and foreign
consumers. To the extent that the refining and blending industry has
flexibility, issuing a waiver helps livestock producers and livestock
product consumers, and it hurts ethanol producers and crop growers.
So far, the Obama administration has shown no indication that it
will relax the ethanol mandate, although the EPA just announced it would take public comments on
a waiver proposal. In the meantime, the Department of Agriculture has tried to
assist livestock producers by buying up millions of
dollars worth of pork, chicken, and beef.
That might help meat producers. But it doesn’t change the fact that the
combination of a drought and tight ethanol rules will hike corn and other food
prices—particularly for developing countries overseas.
* Updated
to note that the EPA is preparing to open a 30-day comment period on requests to waive the
ethanol mandate.
