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"Pete"
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July 20, 2012 10:23 pm
Corn and soya prices continue to soar By Emiko Terazono
Fears of a food shortage reverberated through commodities markets this week as corn and soyabean prices soared to fresh record highs amid the worst US drought in half a century, sparking fears of a repeat of the 2007-08 food crisis.
Although other grain staples such as wheat and rice remain lower, the weather disruptions in key agricultural areas around the globe, such as the severe drought in the US, a weak monsoon in India and a lack of rainfall in Russia threaten to push agricultural commodities prices higher.
The drought in the US Midwest had “completely changed the outlook for grains and oilseeds”, said Chris Gadd, grains analyst at Macquarie Securities. Earlier expectations that the US would see a bumper corn crop had been scuppered, and the grains market now faced a third consecutive year of poor supplies from the world’s largest producer and exporter, he said. Benchmark soyabean prices on Friday hit a record high of $17.77¾ a bushel, while corn futures rose above $8 a bushel for the first time on Thursday, reaching a peak of $8.16¾.
The buying of corn and soyabeans was supported by US government data on the crops, which pointed to sharply lower harvests, as well as an official confirmation from meteorologists that the country was facing the worst drought in the US for half a century.
The US Department of Agriculture said in its weekly report that only 31 per cent of the corn crop was in “good to excellent” shape, down from 40 per cent a week earlier. For soyabeans, the figure fell to 34 per cent to 40 per cent.
Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the drought affecting the country was the worst since 1956 in terms of the areas suffering moderate to extreme effects.
Weather forecasts suggesting that the hot and dry conditions will continue were likely to lead to further cuts in crop production and yield predictions, said analysts. The Commodity Weather Group, a US weather consultancy, cut its corn yield estimate by 10 per cent from its July 5 outlook, to 136 bushels per acre, at the end of the week. This compares to the USDA latest number of 146 bushels per acre.
While US livestock breeders are hoping for some reprieve in the form of corn used for ethanol to be diverted to animal feed, Tom Vilsack, US agriculture secretary, this week rejected calls to ease the rules which mandate ethanol to be blended with gasoline. Analysts said that, with the powerful grain-producing states lobbying for the use of grains as fuel, the ethanol mandates were unlikely to be relaxed ahead of the US presidential election.
Despite the price rallies, many policy makers do not believe the world is facing a new food crisis because the global supply of wheat and rice, the two commodities most important for food security, remain relatively plentiful and prices are still below previous highs.
