HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY READERS!

Short blog tonight........have to get up early for a fishing trip Tuesday.

The EPA has in it's ethanol mandate that so many millions of gallons of ethanol be produced from stock other than corn. The ethanol industry is grappling with finding enzymes that will work in converting grass, etc to sugars to convert into ethanol. But, the technology is way behind the timetable the EPA has imposed on the production of ethanol from other than corn.

Here's an article on cellulosic "biofuel" technology:

Biofuels Industry Hopes Floodgates Will Open for Cellulosic Ethanol in 2013

PUBLISHED OCTOBER 24, 2011

For years, the biofuels industry has defended itself against a variety of criticisms over the shortcomings of corn-derived ethanol by pointing to a cleaner, better, non-food-based alternative on the horizon: cellulosic ethanol. But despite a federal mandate requiring gasoline refiners to add 500 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol to the national fuel mix by 2012 (increasing to 15 billion gallons per year by 2022,) the fuel has been slow to get off the ground.

So when, if ever, will cellulosic ethanol begin to show signs of living up to its promise? According a research director at one of the nation's largest biofuels companies, 2013 is now thought to be the new target for widespread commercial production of the fuel, with large-scale facilities from several major companies scheduled to go online.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects cellulosic ethanol output for 2011 to reach less than 4 million gallons, and next year the EPA is expected to again lower the Renewable Fuels Standard's mandate to roughly 2 percent of its original level.

So when, if ever, will cellulosic ethanol begin to show signs of living up to its promise? According a research director at one of the nation's largest biofuels companies, 2013 is now thought to be the new target for widespread commercial production of the fuel, with large-scale facilities from several major companies scheduled to go online. Greg Hartgraves told Bloomberg News that the industry hopes a 25 million gallon-per-year plant from his company, Poet LLC, as well commercial-scale plants by BP and Abengoa will “open the floodgates” for cellulosic ethanol within the next two years.

Though right now it looks as though catching up to the EPA's timetable for cellulosic ethanol is out of reach for biofuels producers, Hartgrave said that isn't the case—though he added that continued support from the federal government will be required. “Even if the technology plays out like we believe it will, it’s still not an inexpensive technology, and financing is not a trivial matter,” said Hartgrave. “Without [a] consistent energy policy, it becomes risky for people to invest or finance these opportunities.”

But what has for decades seemed like open-ended government support for biofuels is now one of the chief criticisms facing the industry. Though corn ethanol provides a limited emissions benefit over petroleum and has been blamed for contributing to rising food prices, the Renewable Fuels Standard and billions of dollars in supporting government subsidies have ensured that most gasoline sold in the United States include up to a 10-percent blend of the fuel. Soon, that blend could increase to 15 percent.

Cellulosic ethanol offers a more than four-fold lifecycle emissions improvement compared to corn ethanol and since it is made from inedible plant waste instead of corn, it is expected to have little effect on food prices. Still, with significant production yet to begin in the United States and a the release of a new National Research Council study questioning the longterm legitimacy of the fuel, the the clock is ticking for the biofuels industry to prove that its most promising contribution will ever deliver.

"Pete" Landry.........comments welcome..........at.............. way2gopete@yahoo.com

HAVE A GREAT MONDAY READERS!

What a GREAT WIN for our LSU Tigers against another top 25 ranked team. Auburn was completely overwhelmed by LSU, even with their top rusher and corner back out of the game. With Kenny Hillard (nephew of the great Dalton Hillard who played at LSU and for the Saints), LSU now has 6 tailbacks that can be used in games! What incredible depth at every position!

With the loss by Oklahoma, LSU moved up to #1 in the USA Today/Coaches Poll. They are still ranked #1 in the latest BCS poll, with Alabama #2. The media is now REALLY starting to "hype" the "Game of the Decade" on November 5th between LSU and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The game time has been announced for a 7 pm CST kickoff, on CBS. This game will be LSU's 7th National TV showing this year!

And, what can you say about the Saints game tonight! Even though the Colts are hurting without Peyton Manning, a 62-7 score is way more lopsided than I'm sure anyone would have guessed!

Back to ethanol issues now.........here is yet another article that questions the impact that the manufacture of ethanol is having on the world's food supply. It's a little lengthy, so I just posted the first few paragraphs, plus the link if you'd like to read the entire article.

How does ethanol affect our food supply?

Experts say it is a difficult question with many answer 9:56 PM, Oct. 22, 2011 |

Written by Lauren Mills | IowaWatch

Pumping that golden elixir — corn-ethanol — into the gas tank can do a world of good, or so goes the argument.

It relieves the U.S. from dependency on foreign oil, some reports say, and it reduces the pollution spewed out the tailpipe. But those benefits may a take high human toll.

More than 80 percent of the world’s supply of corn comes from five countries, with the U.S. leading the pack by supplying more than half the world’s exports, according to a study released Oct. 13 at the World Food Prize summit in Des Moines.

Three years ago, the world went through a food crisis generated, in part, by high prices, and experts still debate the extent to which ethanol production should be blamed.

There was enough food on the market, but high prices reduced many of the world’s poor to hunger, said Josette Sheeran, the director of the United Nation’s World Food Program. Contributing to the crisis were countries that cut exports of in-demand crops. (Read the entire article at the link below)

LInk: http://www.press-citizen.com/article/20111023/NEWS01/310210033/How-does-ethanol-affect-our-food-supply-?odyssey=nav|head

"Pete" Landry......comments welcome at............way2gopete@yahoo.com

HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY READERS!

Don't forget readers that our unbeaten and #1 ranked LSU Tigers kick off at 2:30 pm on yet another national TV audience in "Death Valley" against the Auburn Tigers.

Here is a rather interesting article about ethanol, suggesting that ethanol is leading our Country down the wrong path.........this article supports just about everything I've been saying and predicting on my website. Here's the article:

Ethanol is taking us down the wrong road

By: PRANAB DAS | Guest columnist
Published: October 21, 2011

"Child starves because mother drives to gas station" sounds like a headline from a grocery-store tabloid. But strangely, it could be true. Today we are using about 40 percent of America's corn, an essential food and feed crop, to make ethanol. Federal law requires that ethanol be mixed in with gasoline. So we are all driving around burning corn instead of eating it.

What's worse, one day's food for an average human being contains about the same amount of energy required to get to the gas station and back home again. So, even if we could perfectly convert the energy from corn to motor fuel, you couldn't even drive a couple of miles on the corn it would take to feed a person for a whole day. Commuting to and from Greensboro would be like taking dozens of people's food off the table.

It seems absurd to squander so much food for so little transportation. How did we come to make such perverse use of our most precious resource? The answer depends, of course, on whom you ask. Some cite politics and the Iowa caucuses, others the powerful farm lobby. The fact that environmentalists naively embraced biofuels before fully understanding their costs was certainly a factor. Whatever the reason, we've been at it for years.

America began making corn into fuel on a massive scale in times of surplus. Farmers couldn't sell their harvests, and grain silos were bulging across America's heartland. Meanwhile, America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil continued to embroil us in nastiness abroad. Enter ethanol. We could use up that surplus, keep the tractors humming and make a dent in our oil consumption. Maybe, if we were lucky, we might even help the environment. Win, win, win.

Alas, what seemed like a good idea has gone horribly wrong. The global food surplus evaporated, and the balance tipped back to shortage. Food prices worldwide have shot up, and domestic corn prices have nearly tripled in the past five years. This has had profound effects up and down the economic ladder, many of which are felt close to home.

For example, this past July, Omtron stopped production at two large North Carolina poultry plants because feed prices had skyrocketed. With a barrel of corn now costing almost $7, the plants are too expensive to run, and hundreds of workers have lost their jobs.

Other effects are more subtle but also more pervasive. American food prices (conveniently eliminated from the "core" inflation rate most often quoted by the media) are climbing. In August, the year-over-year price increases for meat, dairy and eggs were all about 10 percent, according to the USDA — 10 percent in a year when incomes are falling and the economy stagnates!

Three government policies that support food-to-gas conversion were just awful ideas and should be reversed. First of all, we give a direct subsidy to ethanol producers for every gallon they make. U.S. taxpayers paid more than $6 billion in subsidies last year and are on pace to spend even more in 2011. Second, we impose a tariff on foreign ethanol (such as the Brazilian stuff made more cheaply from sugar cane) of 54 cents per gallon. This further skews the market and increases corn prices.

Most important, the federal government imposes a mandate requiring that an increasing portion of our national fuel supply come from corn. Even if the subsidies expire as scheduled at the end of this year, the mandate will remain, effectively forcing every consumer to subsidize the conversion of food to fuel.

Perhaps most dismaying is the fact that biofuels might not even be good for the environment. While the chemical energy in corn comes from sunlight, so much power goes into the fertilizers, harvesters, transports and infrastructure to grow it that many analysts believe corn-based ethanol is an environmental loser overall.

We live in challenging times and everyone would like to make the world better and the economy more sustainable. Unfortunately, our good intentions have paved a road from the corn fields, and we're burning our way down it. Straight to you-know-where.

Pranab Das is a professor of physics at Elon University, where he teaches a course on energy and the environment. He lives in Winston-Salem. The Journal welcomes original submissions for guest columns on local, regional and statewide topics. Essay length should not exceed 750 words. The writer should have some authority for writing about his or her subject. Our e-mail address is: Letters@wsjournal.com. Essays may also be mailed to: The Readers' Forum, P.O. Box 3159, Winston-Salem, NC 27102. Please include your name and address and a daytime telephone number.

"Pete" Landry........comments welcome at ...........way2gopete@yahoo.com

HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY READERS!

I just subscribed to an Ethanol Magazine (electronic version) and found several rather interesting articles.

Here is an article which admits that the newly approved 15% ethanol has a very tough challenge to overcome before it can make it to market. The RVP (Reid Vapor Pressure) is a limit that EPA imposes on gasolines in the summer months. It cannot exceed 9 psi (pounds per square inch) in the May 1st thru September 15th period because if it does, it emits hydrocarbons (in this case - ethanol) to the atmosphere which would be in violation of air emission regulations. It turns out, "E-15" cannot meet these regulations........will be very interesting to see how this affects the introduction of E-15.

Here's the first few paragraphs of the article (little long) and the link to read the entire article if you'd like to read it all:

E15: Cracking the RVP Nut

New blend won’t qualify for One Pound Waiver, presenting huge hurdle

By Jeremy P. Greenhouse | October 18, 2011

Link: http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/8222/e15-cracking-the-rvp-nut

When the U.S. EPA granted Clean Air Act fuel waivers allowing gasoline containing 10 to 15 percent by volume of ethanol (E15) for use in model year 2001 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, the agency included the following condition, as published in the Jan. 26, Federal Register:

“The final fuel must have a Reid Vapor Pressure not in excess of 9.0 psi [pounds per square inch] during the time period from May 1 to September 15.” (Read entire article at link above)

HAVE A GREAT THURSDAY READERS!

WOW, the temperature will be in the high 30's north of the Lake tomorrow morning! Talk about a change.........

Well, I guess everyone has heard the news about the "alleged" suspension of three LSU players for the Auburn game Saturday. It is alleged that Spencer Ware (#11 - Running back), Tyrann Mathieu (#7 - Corner back - aka "The Honey Badger") and another linebacker will be suspended for failing a drug test (synthetic marijuana?). In his Wednesday news conference, Coach Les Miles would not confirm this story. He did indicate there may have been a rule infraction by a few players and he was still investigating the situation. Stay tuned......

Back to ethanol..........I found this interesting graph today about the price of ethanol by State:

Daily Ethanol Rack Prices

State	Today's Avg.	Change
Alabama	3.0015	-0.0027
Arkansas	2.9434	0.0084
Colorado	2.9020	0.0000
Florida	3.1100	0.0100
Georgia	3.1088	-0.0190
Iowa	2.8319	0.0079
Idaho	2.9205	-0.0297
Illinois	2.9224	0.0027
Indiana	2.8778	-0.0018
Kentucky	2.9200	0.0700
Kansas	2.8381	0.0080
Louisiana	3.0000	0.0000
Michigan	2.8800	0.1785
Minnesota	2.8791	0.0130
Missouri	2.9160	0.0024
Mississippi	2.9128	-0.0050
Montana	2.8892	0.0057
North Carolina	3.1025	-0.0083
North Dakota	2.8602	0.0017
Nebraska	2.8275	0.0037
Ohio	2.8736	0.1351
Oklahoma	2.9060	-0.0011
Oregon	2.8215	0.0000
South Carolina	3.0763	0.0035
South Dakota	2.8632	0.0075
Tennessee	3.1250	-0.0150
Texas	3.1020	0.0006
Virginia	3.1550	-0.0150
Washington	2.9298	0.0000
Wisconsin	2.9329	0.0173
Wyoming	2.9007	0.0000
Average Price	2.9461	0.0122
Previous Average Price	2.9339

Wed, Oct 19, 2011 11:31 PM CDT

Notice that the average price of ethanol is about $3/gallon. That means that if you blend 10% ethanol gasoline, the cost of ethanol for a gallon of "E-10" is about $0.30. When you consider that refineries are getting $0.45/gallon tax credit, they are making out "like a bandit". However, when they lose their "Golden Goose" tax credit on 1/1/2012, they will now be "in the red" to blend it appears by this calculation. The thing I don't know however, is how much would it cost the refinery to make high octane blending components to make ethanol free gas to offset the 113 octane rating of ethanol.

I'm still trying to determine if the economics will favor refineries to continue blending ALL of their gasoline as ethanol gas in 2012 after they lose their $0.45/gallon tax credit. This may determine what their operating philosophy is next year without the tax credit.

"Pete" Landry.........comments welcome at.........way2gopete@yahoo.com